Watching is not a strategy:

Five strategic positioning narratives energy and industrial leaders need to review before September.

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Week of 27 July – 2 August 2026

However turbulent the context around the energy and industrial value chains, communication inevitably slows down during the August hiatus. For strategic communications and public affairs teams, this is a time to prepare for the new burst of activity come September, and it is also an opportunity to put stories out and engage with those audiences and stakeholders who are still around while there is less noise on the usual channels.

In today’s newsletter I will catch you up on the strategic narrative signals from the week to take stock of where the energy and industrial value chains find themselves and what positioning and narrative choices can be useful to mull over ahead of the September rush.

Here are the five themes I want to highlight from the week’s events and how they are told.

If you are looking to go deeper and determine your positioning, engagement, or develop communication, let's chat. Book a call, or send us an email.

First, geopolitics.

The conflict in Iran continues to block Hormuz and Red Sea transit, while President Trump sticks to political messaging that holds the tension between peace talks and escalation, keeping uncertainty high. But his effectiveness in managing global oil prices may be diminishing, now that markets have learned to expect it, and the physical reality of US strategic reserves at a 40-year low is more stark. Société Générale analysed 27 presidential statements on the war and found that oil prices fell an average of 0.31% the day after each one, but warned that deteriorating inventories will increasingly overwhelm rhetoric.

This is coupled with an escalation in Russia and Ukraine, which went from recent hopes for a peace deal to an increasingly worrisome step up of the fighting. Ukraine continues to hit Russian energy and e-commerce infrastructure, striking over a dozen warehouses of its largest online marketplace in two weeks, and Russia is responding with intensifying attacks of its own. Collateral damage has extended into the battered global fuels market. Kazakhstan's CPC terminal, the route for 80% of its oil exports, closed for the third time this month after Ukrainian drones hit two tankers at Novorossiysk, while Ukraine's refinery campaign has knocked out more than 30% of Russia's operating refining capacity, triggering its worst fuel shortage since the Soviet collapse, with rolling fuel sales restrictions in nearly every region in Russia and a continued ban on diesel export, which used to cover 10% of the global traded market.

The one thing that looks more certain amongst the volatility is that the ‘temporary’ positioning of the disruption and crisis no longer works, as we enter the sixth month of the Iran conflict and a hotter phase of the fifth year in the Russia-Ukraine war. With no clear end in sight and a risk of further escalation, the long-term positioning implications for oil and gas are real and are increasingly showing up in policy documents (see EU EAP post) a new narrative to explain how this plays out for the industry and the market would be helpful to build trust in the future.

Second, climate change.

The very publicly felt heat wave and infernos that are devastating European and North American forests and nearby towns are reminding everyone about climate change impacts. They are also adding more stress to the already strained supply chains and energy security. The drought on the Rhine is forcing BASF, Covestro and Thyssenkrupp to cut or reroute production. Drought on the Danube is also pushing Hungary's nuclear plant, which supplies nearly half the country's electricity, towards shutdown, and Romania has closed one of Cernavodă's two reactors. This follows the pattern in France, where the warming Rhône and other rivers cannot provide sufficient cooling, with reactors at Golfech shut and output curbed at Bugey and Saint Alban this week, all while Europe's gas storages are at an all-time low. Wildfires have burned some 150,000 hectares in Spain and over 116,000 in France, as well as in Greece, Turkey, Portugal, Washington state, British Columbia and Ontario, which is living through its worst fire season on record.

Yet amid global turbulence and socio-economic tension the resonance looks more muted, while the gap between the aspirational commitments and the physical ability to build the needed systems to transition to lower-carbon energy remains immense, as the Italian resurgence of NIMBYism, now against renewables and in favour of nuclear, reminds us. The positioning signal is to ambitiously mobilise stronger systemic narratives for the energy transition, where physical reality stops being secondary, the idea of silver bullets gets retired, and actors learn to work together.

Third, the nuclear narrative and an Italian case of NIMBYism.

Excitement about nuclear power is juxtaposed with the World Nuclear Association saying global investment must triple to $250bn a year to meet stated targets. Italy is experiencing a rekindling with nuclear energy and is about to approve a framework law for small modular reactors. The most interesting feature is campaigners who switched from backing renewables to fighting wind turbines and championing nuclear. They are contesting RWE's approved wind project and reminding us that when buildout moves from paper to reality, views change quickly, and local buy-in is critical whether you are building a data centre, a nuclear plant, or a wind farm. As Newcleo's chief executive Stefano Buono put it, Italians dislike any power installation, and he expects the same problems when it comes to siting their own reactors.

At the same time, Italian power bills are adding pressure, running around 30% above the European average, often blamed on the country's heavy reliance on gas imports, with fossil fuels still generating about half of its electricity.

The nuclear narrative in turn stumbles on timelines. Traditional builds run close to a decade, with UK’s Hinkley Point C now slipped to 2030 and its costs nearly doubled, and the hyped SMRs are not quite commercial yet. Whatever the pace of the revival, the practical context for the coming decade is a continued need for secure gas supply.

Fourth, the optics of windfall profits.

Fresh earnings reports had a lot of big numbers again on the back of the crisis volatility, which helped players with trading arms offset production impact and then some. Shell posted $9.8bn, its second-highest quarter ever, with trading gains offsetting a 31% fall in gas production; Glencore's trading earnings doubled to $3.3bn; Valero's profit rose more than five-fold.

For a public squeezed by inflation and high energy prices and living in increasingly polarised polities with redistribution appetites running high, the optics of trading windfalls during a supply crisis need clear proactive communication to avoid continued backlash against what may be misconstrued as ‘war profits’.

Fifth, AI and big tech. Anyone hear a pre-popping sound?

AI data centres stayed in the driving seat of the energy agenda. Brookfield and NextEra unveiled a $100bn AI gas and battery powered campus, while PJM proposed curtailing large loads that arrive without their own supply, after data centre demand added $29.4bn to capacity costs over four auctions. North American grid regulators are now hurriedly writing the rules to address the reliability challenges that the buildout is creating.

Meanwhile, public opposition keeps growing, already forcing project withdrawals and calls for moratoriums. And with the zeitgeist (and capital markets) growing increasingly loud on the tech bubble risk, there is a looming question over all of it: what happens to the upstream energy and industrial value chains if the bubble bursts?

The Week's Stories

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Monday, July 27

• Oil price tumbles as Iran and US pause strikes over Strait of Hormuz (Financial Times)

• Iran-Oman Talks Focused on Restarting Hormuz Shipping Traffic (Bloomberg)

Tuesday, July 28

• The UAE’s bold gambit on Iran (Financial Times)

• Trump’s ability to talk down oil prices is being tested (Financial Times)

• Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure for European, Asian Buyers (Bloomberg)

Wednesday, July 29

• US oil inventories fall to ‘precariously low’ level as Iran war disrupts supply (Financial Times)

• Glencore trading profits double on Middle East turmoil (Financial Times)

• US-Iran War Flares Up Again While Saudi Arabia Strikes Iraq (Bloomberg)

Thursday, July 30

• Shell posts second-highest profits ever as traders cash in on Iran disruption (Financial Times)

• Mideast oil faces bleak new order as Iran’s grip on Hormuz tightens (Reuters)

• EXCLUSIVE: QatarEnergy buys 33 US LNG cargoes to offset Hormuz disruption, sources say (Reuters)

• Oil settles down on proposed Saudi-led maritime defence coalition (Reuters)

• US Refiners See Billions in Profits From Global Fuel Crunch (Bloomberg)

Friday, July 31

• Oil Heads for Monthly Surge of 21% as US-Iran War Strains Supply (Bloomberg)

Russia and Ukraine

• EU hesitates to target Irish plant accused of supplying Russia’s war industry (Financial Times, July 28)

• TotalEnergies benefits from EU sanctions reprieve on Russian gas (Financial Times, July 28)

• US poised to impose new Russia sanctions package (Financial Times, July 29)

• How Vladimir Putin’s refinery dream became Ukraine’s target (Financial Times, July 30)

• Kazakhstan's oil export gateway shut again by Ukrainian drone attacks in Black Sea (Reuters, July 30)

Heat Wave

• Wildfires in Spain and France Stabilize But New Heat Wave Looms (Bloomberg, July 27)

• Rhine drought strands ships and forces German production cuts (Financial Times, July 31)

Nuclear

• Nuclear revival needs $250bn a year, industry says (Financial Times, July 29)

• Italy’s Giorgia Meloni bets big on nuclear power revival (Financial Times, August 2)

AI and Data Centres

• Scottish data centre boom spurs backlash (Financial Times, July 28)

• Trump administration bans Chinese hardware with eye on AI race (Axios, July 28)

• PJM board proposes backstop capacity auction, data center curtailment plans (utilitydive, July 28)

• More Than ​​1,100 AI Workers Call for US to Pace Tech Growth (Bloomberg, July 28)

• Brookfield and NextEra to build $100bn AI campus on ex-nuclear weapons site (Financial Times, July 29)

Upstream

• UK North Sea oil companies look overseas for growth (Financial Times, July 30)

• Argentina's growth paradox: Shale riches grow as jobs disappear elsewhere (Reuters, July 30)

• Burnham risks first revolt as PM over apparent support for North Sea drilling (The Guardian, July 31)

• BP puts its UK North Sea business up for sale (Financial Times, July 31)

Minerals

• Funding gaps hobble western critical mineral objectives, says report (Financial Times, July 28)

• Codelco Rules Out Meeting Copper Goals as It Faces Tough Year (Bloomberg, July 28)

• Rio Tinto buoyant on AI demand for metals as earnings soar (Financial Times, July 29)

• BHP Faces Rolling Strikes at Key Australian Iron Ore Export Port (Bloomberg, July 31)

Transition

• US Backs Morocco Ammonia Plan With First Funds for Disputed Area (Bloomberg, July 28)

• Top Off-Grid Solar Firm Targets 1.5 Million Malagasy Customers (Bloomberg, July 29)

• How extreme weather is shaping tomorrow's electric grid (Axios, July 31)

China

• China’s industrial profits grow at slowest pace this year (Financial Times, July 27)

• Iran war shows China role in setting the price of oil (Axios, July 30)

More Energy Context Stories

• #Deals EDF explores sale of stakes in modular reactor subsidiary (Financial Times, July 30)

• #BP BP to cut 700 jobs as it warns on oil ‘oversupply’ (Financial Times, July 30)

• #Emissions Reporting GHG Protocol’s Scope 2 overhaul moves forward – harmonised standard due in 2027 (csofutures, July 29)

• #Africa Libya’s Power Standoff Briefly Hits Oil Fields, Local Gas Flows (Bloomberg, July 28)

• #Capital Engie Raises Full-Year Profit Outlook Amid Market Volatility (Bloomberg, July 31)

• #New Map Australia to Study First New Oil Refinery Since the Sixties (Bloomberg, July 28)

If you are looking to go deeper and determine your positioning, engagement, or develop communication, let's chat. Book a free call below, or send us an email.

SOURCES

Axios, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Reuters, The Guardian, CSO futures, Utility Dive, and other Statem research

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