Part 2: Week's Context by the Numbers

Iran & Oil

• ~104 mb/d: pre-war global oil consumption

• −63%: oil through Hormuz in August vs pre-war, down 13.1 mb/d to 7.6 mb/d

• 7 mb/d: Saudi East-West bypass pipeline capacity, shut after drone attacks from Iraq

• 1990: the last time Saudi output was this low

• 7.8 → 5.5 mb/d: bypass exports via Yanbu and Fujairah, June peak to August, after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea

• 500mn+ barrels: lost Hormuz exports offset by bypass routes

• 2.3 mb/d: extra supply from outside the Gulf (420mn barrels), led by the US, Brazil and Kazakhstan

• −5.3 mb/d: global oil demand in Q2 year on year, the first quarterly fall since Covid

• −507mn barrels: global oil stocks since the war began

• $109.80: Brent high on 14 Sept

• $90: JPMorgan's fair value for oil, meaning the market is pricing 4 mb/d of further losses on top of 10 mb/d already disrupted

• −94%: container ship transits into the Gulf

• $10,000: shipping a container from China to the UAE, up from $1,250

• $5mn+: one Panama Canal transit slot, 35 times the pre-war price

• 90%: Iran's inflation, with non-oil exports down 28%

Gas & LNG

• <10%: share of pre-war LNG traffic getting through Hormuz

• $26/mmBtu: North Asia spot LNG, up 150%, a 45-month high

• 2018: the last time Asia imported this little LNG in a September; China −19%, Pakistan −76% year on year

• +25%: forecast rise in UK household energy bills in January, after month-ahead gas rose 150% since the war began

Russia & Ukraine

• 28 of 32: Russia's largest refineries hit by Ukraine; Russian refinery runs down 30%

• 245,000 b/d: the Moscow refinery hit on Sunday

• $120+: ESPO crude, a record $20–30 premium over Brent; Urals delivered to India and China at $110–120

• $2.42bn: Russia's weekly seaborne oil export revenue, the highest since late May

• 100%: maximum tariff on buyers of Russian oil and gas under a bill passed by the US House; China, India and Turkey are among the largest buyers

• 58%: United Russia's share in the preliminary Duma vote count, on about 57% turnout; electronic voting turnout over 90%

Venezuela

• $13bn+: Venezuelan oil revenue collected by the US by July; 23% disclosed as returned

• $7bn: Chevron's plan to double its output; Exxon is negotiating a return

• +300 kb/d: Venezuelan output since February

Data Centres & AI

• −10.7%: SoftBank after the AI labs called for a slowdown; ASML −6.1%, Micron −6%, Nvidia −3.4%, Kospi −3.3%, European tech −2.1%, Nasdaq 100 −0.8%

• $900mn: Holtec's suspended nuclear IPO

• 53%: Americans concerned about AI's environmental impact, up from 41%; among 18–29 year olds, 60%, up from 38%

• 84%: Americans worried about data centres' effect on their electricity bills; 79% about water, 78% about outages

• 73%: want data centres to pay for grid upgrades, with equal support in both parties

• 20: companies in the new AI Energy Management Alliance, including Google, Nvidia and Anthropic; Google has committed 1 GW of demand it can cut

Economy

• $200/bbl: diesel in the US and Europe, up 60% since Russia banned diesel exports

• 5%+: US 10-year yield, the highest since 2007

• €54bn: France's planned savings, as its borrowing costs hit their highest since 2008

• 31-year high: Bank of Japan's rate; the Fed raised for the first time since 2023, the ECB for the second time since the war began

• 110%: rich-country public debt to GDP, up from under 70% at the start of the century

• 94: countries that have cut fuel taxes, capped prices or subsidised fuel

• +40%: Syria's diesel price rise, with petrol up nearly 30%, followed by protests

• €500mn a day: extra EU spending on fossil fuel imports since the war, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen

Supply Chains

• +11.5%: US intermediate goods prices in August year on year; freight per shipment +16%

• 9%: share of world aluminium supply cut by the war, as China's output hit a record

Transition & Electricity

• 61% vs 39%: global energy investment going to electricity vs fossil fuels this year

• $205bn: record US power M&A in the first half

• $1,468/kW: gas plant valuations, more than double 2024

• 4 years: NextEra and Dominion's extended $10 monthly household bill credit, paid for by ending data centre credits

• 100 GW: new US generation needed in five years, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright; he says utility plans in place when he took office would have cut 46 GW of firm generation, and puts world spending on wind, solar, batteries and transmission at $10tn

• 1.3 mb/d: oil demand displaced by electric cars and trucks in China

• 37% vs 4.8%: electric share of new trucks in China vs the EU

• 24 GW: record European wind installations this year; EU target 500 GW by 2030, WindEurope expects 436 GW

• 5,500 GW: US potential for next-generation geothermal vs 40 GW conventional, at $15,000/kW vs $4,800–6,300

• $6.6bn: global CCS investment last year, up from $4.1bn; Exxon won a Texas permit to store about 53mn tonnes of CO₂

• +114%: marine gasoil since the war began; marine biodiesel is now cheaper

• +85.6%: India's power sector coal imports in August year on year

• 60% → under 30%: Thailand's reliance on Middle East oil; its new plan sets at least 65% clean power

• $29 a month: what Americans will pay to fight climate change, the lowest in a decade after inflation

• 118: UK forecourts Indian conglomerate Essar is buying, aiming for 800, about 9% of the market, by 2031

Policy

• $300bn+: savings the US EPA claims from repealing carbon limits on power plants

• 1 mb/d: proposed pipeline that Alberta's new oil royalties aim to fill

• 3 years: delay European manufacturers want to the EU's 2030 truck CO₂ target

Africa

• $49bn: Dangote refinery valuation, against $20bn to build

• 8%: share of South Africa's economy in gas-dependent industries, which lose Sasol's surplus gas in two years

• 8: ultra-deepwater blocks Petrobras signed off Ivory Coast

• +200 kb/d: Nigerian output since February

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The week's stories by theme

Iran & Oil

Satellite images show extent of damage to Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)

Amazon Fails to Recover Some Data in Facilities Hit in Iran War (Bloomberg)

Saudis Pivot to Send More Oil Through Hormuz After Pipeline Shut (Bloomberg)

US Coast Guard Boards Oil Tanker in Cyber Attack Investigation (Bloomberg)

COMMENTARY: Panama Canal stress shows the real shipping squeeze may still be ahead (Reuters)

JPMorgan Analysts Unsure How to Model Oil as Iran War Drags On (Bloomberg)

Japan's refiners secured sufficient crude supplies through November, industry body says (Reuters)

Pakistan urges Iran to rein in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia (Financial Times)

Iran activates land routes to bypass US blockade (Financial Times)

Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall (IEA)

More LNG Getting Through Hormuz as Producers Push for Transits (Bloomberg)

Five ways the Iran energy shock is wrongfooting the world (Financial Times)

Houthis launch missile at Saudi capital in escalation of hostilities (Financial Times)

The Gulf cargo trade that vanished (Financial Times)

The Iran war's long tail (Axios)

Gas & LNG

How high might natural gas prices go? (Financial Times)

Energy Bills Forecast to Jump 25%, Bloomberg Analysis Finds (Bloomberg)

COMMENTARY: LNG spot price surge deters Asian buyers, but saves Europe (Reuters)

Russia & Ukraine

В России впервые более чем за 30 лет разрешили свободную продажу противогазов (The Moscow Times (Russian))

Nato would defeat Russia quickly if ‘we took our gloves off’, says Poland (The Independent)

Trump urges Ukraine to stop ‘knocking out’ Russian oil refineries as U.S. diesel hits record (CNBC)

COMMENTARY: Trump's Ukraine energy truce won't fix global diesel crunch (Reuters)

Luxembourg probes Gazprombank ex-managers (Financial Times)

Oxford spin-off builds low-cost jet engines for drones (Financial Times)

Jaguar Land Rover targets Nato military budgets with revamped Defender (Financial Times)

US passes bill targeting importers of Russian oil (Financial Times)

Russian Far East Crude Tops $120 Per Barrel as Middle East Supply Shocks Drive Chinese Demand (The Moscow Times)

ЦИК: «Единая Россия» лидирует в 161 одномандатном округе. Всего таких округов 225 (Meduza)

ЦИК раскрыла данные подсчета 20% голосов на выборах в Госдуму (RBC)

Ukrainian drones hit Moscow on last day of Russian elections, killing two (Le Monde)

Moscow Refinery Hit as Russia Reports Largest 2026 Drone Attack (Bloomberg)

Venezuela

Venezuela to Join G20 Energy Summit as US Aims to Tap More Deals (Bloomberg)

How Poland lost $230mn trying to buy Venezuelan oil with crypto (Financial Times)

Trump oil ally Harold Hamm to invest in Venezuela (Financial Times)

Exxon advances talks to return to Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, sources say (Reuters)

Venezuela nears deal to tap disputed $4bn gold reserve (Financial Times)

US state department under pressure to disclose Venezuelan oil takings (Financial Times)

Data Centres & AI

AI Bosses Clash With Trump on Their Calls to Slow AI Development (Bloomberg)

US tech stocks fall after big AI groups call for slowdown (Financial Times)

Tech giants launch flexible-power coalition for data centers (Axios)

OpenAI Reports New AI Safety Incidents, Sets Disclosure Plan (Bloomberg)

Holtec pulls IPO over ‘perfect storm’ in AI sector, founder says (Financial Times)

How should investors position for the robot apocalypse? (Financial Times)

Concern About AI's Environmental Impact has Risen Over the Past Year, Especially Among Young Adults (EPIC, University of Chicago)

Economy

A hotter planet meets dearer money (Financial Times)

France plans €54 billion savings drive as protests grow (Reuters)

Supply Chains

US manufacturers hit by fresh burst of supply chain cost inflation (Financial Times)

China’s Aluminum Output Hits Record as Government Limit Looms (Bloomberg)

Transition & Electricity

Energy giants seeking to merge say they'll extend Virginia residents' bill credits and add jobs (AP)

Essar strikes deal to buy 118 UK petrol stations (Financial Times)

Japan's J-Power expects delay to 2030 start of Ohma nuclear power plant (Reuters)

Drill, baby, drill: geothermal energy developers borrow techniques from oil and gas (Financial Times)

ExxonMobil wins Texas approval for $5bn carbon capture project (Financial Times)

Ørsted boss says Europe must act on ‘unfair’ Chinese wind turbine makers (Financial Times)

IEA chief says electrification remains the way forward despite AI investment jitters (Reuters)

Heatwave triggers potato shortage in Europe (Financial Times)

We need an observatory for the cooling north Atlantic (Financial Times)

Germany’s Green Power Boom Leaves Developers Fighting to Survive (Bloomberg)

Indian utilities' August coal imports surge to 15-month high as heat boosts demand (Reuters)

Costs take center stage at New York's Climate Week (Axios)

Thailand Sees Energy Transition as Shield Against Oil Volatility (Bloomberg)

Chris Wright on Energy Abundance (The Free Press)

Power and utilities M&A 2026 midyear update: Deal activity reinforces scale, speed, and scarcity (Deloitte)

NOVATEK Launches Northernmost GHG Monitoring Station in National Carbon Supersites Network (Novatek)

Biodiesel for shipping now cheaper than conventional fuels after price fall (Financial Times)

Single bet on electric trucks would be ‘super dangerous’ for Europe, Volvo says (Financial Times)

Policy

US government secures 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (Mining.com)

Donald Trump to scrap Joe Biden-era climate protections on power plant pollution (Financial Times)

EU capitals rebuff Mark Carney’s ‘unique alliance’ with Canada (Financial Times)

EU asks China to voluntarily limit hybrid car exports (Financial Times)

Alberta Changing Oil Royalty Regime to Spur Growth, Premier Says (Bloomberg)

Africa

The $1.6bn IPO that could draw millions of Nigerians to the stock market (Financial Times)

South Africa Is Sleepwalking Toward a Gas Crisis, Businesses Warn (Bloomberg)

Petrobras Expands Hunt for African Oil With Ivory Coast Blocks (Bloomberg)

TotalEnergies faces fresh scrutiny over response to Mozambique attack (Financial Times)

Playing with Fire

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The global context for energy, industry, and their finance was not for the faint-hearted this week. I will make it a rule to add at least one upside, so I don't become your Monday doomer girl (new to the cultural reference? It's a fun rabbit hole for when you need a distraction from the news). You'll also find the key numbers from the week below, with every relevant fact from the weekly context scan in one place.

Contents

Part 1:

• On wars and geopolitics

• Big Tech

• Economy and prices

• Transition

• The Promised Upside

Part 2:

• Week's context by the numbers

• The stories by theme

Part 1: Playing with fire

On wars and geopolitics. The most concerning news this week came as subtext that was only available in the Russian-speaking sources. Russian authorities announced that the sale of certified gas masks to regular citizens without a permit will be restored from 1 March 2027, for the first time since 1992.

Both wars, in the Gulf and in Ukraine, are escalating and there is no visible reason to expect a "natural course" reversal. This isn't to say that a longer and bigger war is the only route, but that to change course, something or someone needs to start moving differently.

In the European theatre, Ukraine unleashed its biggest drone attack on Moscow on Sunday 20 September, the last day of Russia's parliamentary elections, hitting the Moscow oil refinery, and Russia continued its attacks too, including with new jet-powered drones that get past Ukraine's air defences more often. World War II ended 81 years ago, and the generation that lived through it is almost gone. The fear of a new big global war is distant and not emotionally deterring enough anymore, while the seduction of the political opportunities it can offer may look just appealing enough in certain contexts. This is why I think that diplomatically side-stepping this risk when discussing the situation is adding to, not subtracting from it. We need to be very clear about the stakes at play when we play up "defence" and play down "war".

Big Tech. The AI-pocalypse scare complemented the doomy week's menu with a fitting zeitgeisty spice. At the start of September, an Anthropic researcher resigned, saying AI companies were "gambling with our lives". Anthropic's chief executive Dario Amodei, backed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and Elon Musk, then called for slowing the most advanced AI before it slips beyond human control, and OpenAI disclosed that its models had fabricated data and tried to bypass network restrictions on multiple occasions. President Trump called the fears "a hoax", phoning Nvidia's Jensen Huang live on stage at the All-In Summit. Huang, together with Meta and others, opposed the pause.

Markets and analysts took it with a grain of salt, as a potential commercial move by the leading AI labs to gain position over competitors. It could also plausibly be a move to deflate the AI bubble in a more controlled way and reduce the risk of it bursting with seismic consequences for the economy. And all those things are also not mutually exclusive, so it is probably worth considering seriously whether there really is a 1 in 10 chance that T-Claude, T-Grok, or ChatGP-T are coming to get us (T stands for Terminator, another cultural reference worth googling if you're too young to know, or one of your favourite pastimes is living under a rock).

The scare did reach energy. Holtec, one of the US's largest nuclear suppliers, which is expanding from nuclear waste storage into restarting a plant in Michigan and building small modular reactors, suspended its $900mn IPO, with its founder saying the business is "viewed as connected" to data centres.

Economy and prices. Bond markets took the energy and supply chain crises more seriously than the rise of the robots. A bond sell-off pushed the US 10-year yield above 5%, its highest since 2007, and French borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, while the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all raised interest rates.

Meanwhile, public outcry and political pressure over high energy prices continue. French fishermen blockaded Mediterranean ports and the Frontignan oil depot for three days over fuel costs, while the government extended fuel subsidies for fishing, farming and construction to the end of the year. Syria saw protests after raising diesel prices by 40%, and 94 countries have now cut fuel taxes, capped prices or subsidised fuel. That isn't helping with unhealthy government debt levels at close to 110% of GDP across rich countries. At the same time, more spending is being promised for electrification, now presented almost universally as the bright future of the clean energy transition.

Transition. Climate week kicked off in New York on Sunday. Axios expects it to be dominated by economics. I agree. The main arguments used against fossil fuels this year are cost and risk (coincidentally, the same goes for data centre opposition), with renewables and electrification presented as the antidote. However, as frames often do, each of those edits meaningful parts out of the full story. News of Germany's renewable developers fighting to survive, with solar park operator Enerparc insolvent on about €3bn of debt as cheap financing dries up and subsidies are reworked, points to systemic blind spots in the dichotomy, and the most troubling of all is that electrification ambition doesn't appear to have been properly costed. It's troubling because it risks repeating the same risky net-zero policy approach we've already tried and failed at. At the risk of speculating, I expect the IEA's World Energy Outlook, due on 18 November at the tail end of COP31, to be one of this year's key documents substantiating the electrification consensus. Let's just remember the importance of clarifying the difference between scenarios and forecasts when we read it.

The Promised Upside. This week it comes from Africa. Nigeria's Dangote refinery opened Africa's largest-ever IPO, $1.6bn at ₦525 a share, in what Dangote calls the "People's IPO", targeting 10 million individual investors. The 700,000 b/d refinery reached full capacity in February, just as the Iran war disrupted supplies, and has turned Nigeria, a major oil producer that long imported its refined fuel, into a key exporter of diesel and jet fuel. (This is a very common story in Africa where domestic resources are often exported overseas only to be re-imported as upgraded product, so the highest value is also outsourced.) Shares can be bought in lots of as few as 10, and new online brokers have opened the sale to first-time investors: one of them, Bamboo, expects over a million new registrations, in a country where almost 40% of adults have no bank account.

(The full list of the week's stories bearing on the operational and strategic context of the energy, industry, and their finance sectors is available at the end of the web versions of this newsletter.)

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