Hormuz Stale Mate | Global Energy Context Week in Focus | April 20 - Apr 26 |
Catch up on the Gulf energy crisis timeline and everything that is shaping the context around the global energy narrative with this review of key energy stories #ICYMI.
CONTEXTRESEARCHNEWS & NARRATIVE
4/26/202621 min read
The Global Energy Context Week in Focus
#ICYMI
Your briefing on everything that matters for the energy business context at the start of the week. We went through dozens of energy news stories and reviewed what matters here, so you can get across it, fast.
Read our review to understand the underlying currents of this week's biggest energy context and how to position your organisation effectively within these rapidly evolving market dynamics. If you need to act on any of these topics, we would be delighted to connect on a brief call. You can book directly through the button at the top of this page.
Week of April 20 – April 26, 2026
The Hormuz standoff hardened into a dual blockade this week, with neither side willing to blink. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely but kept the naval blockade in place; Iran’s IRGC seized its first vessels since the war began; and the Pentagon told Congress that mine-clearing alone could take six months. No peace talks are scheduled.
The supply shock is now cascading into consumers, food systems and aviation. The IEA confirmed the crisis has removed ~20% of global LNG supply and will delay the anticipated LNG expansion wave by at least two years. Asia’s crude imports fell to a 10-year low, cutting diesel and jet fuel output by up to 2 million bpd. Singapore jet fuel hit $204/bbl, more than double pre-war levels. Shell’s Pernis refinery went to “max jet mode.” US farmers absorbed a 47% urea price surge during spring planting, with ~70% unable to afford all the fertiliser they need.
US crude exports hit a record 5.2 million bpd, but infrastructure constraints cap the monthly ceiling at ~5.5 million bpd and domestic diesel inventories are falling fast. Dallas Fed survey: 43% of shale executives do not expect US production to rise by more than 250,000 bpd this year. Rig counts are flat despite $100+ crude.
The European Commission launched AccelerateEU, its most explicit framing yet of the crisis as grounds for a permanent structural shift away from fossil fuel imports. Separately, ~60 nations met in Colombia to plan a fossil fuel phase-out outside the COP framework, and European rooftop solar demand more than doubled.
Beyond the Gulf
The supply map is being redrawn, and demand is facing structural destruction risk.
Golden Pass LNG loaded its inaugural export cargo for Italy, LNG Canada approached full capacity, and Germany began privatising the seized Gazprom division Sefe. Africa emerged as a focal point: LNG exports climbed 27% in Q1, Dangote pledged to build a new refinery in Tanzania to replicate his Nigerian success, while South Africa doubled US fuel imports. Russian Druzhba pipeline flows resumed to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine after a three-month outage. In an unexpected twist, a 4.9 GW of battery storage is being co-located with gas turbines at data centres to extend fossil fuel infrastructure life, while community opposition is increasingly derailing large-scale battery projects across the US, with California facing 110,000+ MW in applications and mounting cancellations.
The Shape of the Narrative
In the battle of the narratives, three points are visible:
Point 1. The case for accelerating the energy transition away from fossil fuels reached a new height with government and institutional voices behind the message this week. The European Commission’s AccelerateEU package explicitly framed the Hormuz situation as “the fossil energy crisis” and committed to an Electrification Action Plan, a State Aid Temporary Framework and a target of €660bn/year in transition investment. Separately, ~60 nations met in Colombia to plan a fossil fuel phase-out outside the COP framework, and European rooftop solar demand more than doubled.
Point 2. The counter-narrative also advanced, but much more mildly and with less weight behind it. The EU is reconsidering its Arctic drilling moratorium on energy security grounds, LNG Canada’s CEO stated publicly that markets are not paying a premium for low-carbon energy, and batteries are being paired with gas turbines at AI data centres to extend fossil fuel infrastructure life rather than displace it. Plus, the story that surfaced a strong negative sentiment against batteries in the US.
Point 3. Political appetite for taxing fossil fuel “windfall” profits is expanding, adding to a bad precedent; bad for any business. Australia is modelling a windfall tax on gas exports, while Norway faces intensifying accusations of war profiteering from EU neighbours with some suggestions that it should cough some of that up toward common European causes like support to Ukraine.
Read our review to understand the underlying currents of this week's biggest energy context and how to position your organisation effectively within these rapidly evolving market dynamics. If you need to act on any of these topics, we would be delighted to connect on a brief call. You can book directly through the button at the top of this page.
Part 1: The Gulf Crisis
Iran War & Hormuz Crisis Timeline
The war’s ninth week saw the Strait of Hormuz calcify into a dual-blockade standoff, with both the US and Iran weaponising the waterway: Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely but maintained the naval blockade, Iran seized its first vessels since the war began, and the Pentagon disclosed a six-month mine-clearing timeline.
Monday, April 20
Oil and gas prices spiked after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship and Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire; Brent rose 5.6% to $95.50 and European TTF gas surged 11% after Iran reclosed the Strait following a brief reopening. Reuters detailed why even a full reopening would take months to years for recovery, with ~260 laden vessels trapped inside the Gulf and 20% of oil and gas fields facing months-long restart timelines. Gunvor’s new CEO warned of heightened volatility ahead, while China’s ethane imports from the US were set to hit a record 800,000 tons in April as the Hormuz closure cut off Middle Eastern petrochemical feedstocks.
Oil and Gas Jump After US Seizure of Iranian Ship Imperils Talks (Bloomberg)
European Gas Futures Soar as Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again (Bloomberg)
Opening Hormuz is the easy part. Restoring oil flows isn’t (Reuters)
Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon? (Reuters)
Oil prices set for more turbulence in months ahead, warns Gunvor chief (Financial Times)
Iran War Deepens China’s Dependence on the US for Niche Gas (Bloomberg)
Welcome to the age of energy shocks (Reuters)
Tuesday, April 21
Satellite imagery revealed multiple oil spills in the Persian Gulf from strikes on oil facilities and vessels, including a spill spanning more than five miles near Qeshm Island and damage at five locations on Lavan Island reaching protected coral habitats; experts warned of a potential ecological catastrophe affecting desalination plants serving nearly 100 million people.
Oil spills from the Iran war are visible from space (CNN)
Wednesday, April 22
Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire but maintained the naval blockade, while Iran’s IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas, the first vessel seizures since the war began; lead negotiator Qalibaf rejected the arrangement as a “flagrant breach” and refused to attend planned talks in Islamabad. The Pentagon informed Congress that mine-clearing could take six months, with Iran estimated to have laid 20+ GPS-guided mines; US gasoline averaged $4.02/gallon, up from $2.98 pre-war. The EU confirmed a fertiliser action plan for 19 May as western European urea prices rose 55% from pre-war levels, and the GECF warned gas demand destruction could become structural if the conflict persists beyond six months.
Trump Extends Iran Ceasefire, Blockade as Peace Talks Stumble (Bloomberg)
US Says No Deadline for Iran Proposal Amid Hormuz Standoff (Bloomberg)
Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz after US calls off renewed attacks (Reuters)
Iran Menaces Hormuz as Its Own Oil Tankers Test US Blockade (Bloomberg)
Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress (Washington Post)
How the Iran war oil gas supply shock compares with past disruptions (Reuters)
EU rethinks opposition to Arctic oil and gas drilling (Financial Times)
EU to present fertiliser strategy on May 19 as Iran conflict raises costs (Reuters)
Iran war conflict could create systemic gas demand destruction, says top sector official (Reuters)
Thursday, April 23
Strait traffic ground to a near-total halt, with only one bulk carrier observed transiting; the US boarded the sanctioned VLCC Majestic X in the Indian Ocean while Brent spiked to $105.07 after reports of air defences engaging over Tehran and the resignation of Iran’s top negotiator. Trafigura still had nine vessels trapped while Mercuria extracted all three of its ships through undisclosed routes. Asia’s refinery throughput fell sharply, with crude imports at a 10-year low and middle distillate losses estimated at 1.8 to 2.0 million bpd; Shell’s Pernis refinery in Rotterdam went to “max jet mode” as easyJet, KLM and Lufthansa issued profit warnings or cut flights. Singapore turned to record Russian fuel oil imports to replace lost Gulf supply.
Hormuz Traffic Grinds to a Halt After Iran Seizes First Vessels (Bloomberg)
US Boards Supertanker Carrying Oil From Iran in the Indian Ocean (Bloomberg)
Crude oil futures jump on reports of air attacks, Iran power struggle (Reuters)
Oil Holds Gains as Peace Negotiations Between US and Iran Stall (Bloomberg)
US Says It Awaits Iran Move on Talks as Hormuz Tension Rises (Bloomberg)
Trump’s Messaging Blitz Divides Advisers as Iran Talks Waver (Bloomberg)
Escape from Hormuz: the oil tankers running the Iranian gauntlet (Financial Times)
How quickly can Gulf oil start gushing again? (Financial Times)
Asia deepens refining cuts due to Iran war, putting diesel and jet fuel supplies at risk (Reuters)
China’s LNG imports plunge, helping Asia adjust to Iran war losses (Reuters)
Europe’s Top Oil Refinery Ramps Up Jet Fuel Amid Supply Crunch (Bloomberg)
Singapore turns to Russian fuel oil as war restricts Middle Eastern supplies (Financial Times)
Friday, April 24
The IEA’s quarterly gas market report confirmed the crisis has removed close to 20% of global LNG supply, triggering the highest Asian and European gas prices since January 2023 and delaying the global LNG expansion wave by at least two years, with a cumulative loss of roughly 120 billion cubic metres projected through 2030. India cranked up domestic LPG output by over 20% and secured record US volumes for May, but total supply remained well below pre-crisis consumption of 100,000 tons per day, with the government conducting roughly 150,000 raids against price gouging. Axios reported that combined US oil and petroleum product exports hit a record 12.9 million bpd, but infrastructure constraints cap the monthly crude ceiling at roughly 5.5 million bpd.
Middle East crisis disrupts international natural gas markets and delays global LNG supply wave (IEA)
India Cranks Up Output to Cope With Enduring Cooking Gas Crisis (Bloomberg)
Trump’s surge in oil exports during Iran war will hit a ceiling (Axios)
Saturday, April 25
US crude exports surged to a record 5.2 million bpd with 65+ empty supertankers heading to the US to load, nearly triple pre-war levels, as the Hormuz blockade accelerates a structural reordering of global energy flows toward US supply. Rystad estimated higher prices could boost US oil company cash flows by $63 billion in 2026, though sustained high prices may also accelerate EV adoption and renewables deployment.
America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war (Financial Times)
Part 2: Key Energy Stories Beyond the Gulf
Africa
Africa’s $4 Trillion Challenge Is Better Deployment, AFC Says
Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#DomesticInvestment Africa Finance Corp. reports the continent’s domestic financial resources now total $4 trillion, but only 4% of GDP is invested in infrastructure versus 14% in China. With an annual infrastructure financing gap of up to $170bn, the report identifies aviation and trade corridor integration as the easiest sectors to scale under the AfCFTA.
South Africa Ramps Up Fuel Imports From US as War Jolts Trade
Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#USIMports South Africa is replacing lost Middle Eastern fuel with US imports; at least four tankers delivered ~165,000 tons of refined fuels to Durban in April, roughly double January’s US import volume. The shift underscores how the Hormuz blockade is reshaping global fuel trade routes and raising costs for import-dependent economies that previously sourced from Gulf states.
Kenya’s $39 Billion Push for Roads, Dams and Finishing the ‘Train to Nowhere’
Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#InfrastructureInvesting President Ruto is pursuing a $39bn infrastructure plan over the coming decade, centred on a National Infrastructure Fund capitalised by sales of state-owned company stakes including ~15% of Safaricom. The $10bn China-funded Mombasa-Nairobi-Lake Victoria railway is central to the push, though IMF pushback on revenue securitisation and domestic criticism pose risks to the financing model.
Dangote Vows to Build Nigeria-Style Oil Refinery in East Africa
Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#Refining Aliko Dangote pledged to lead construction of a new refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, linked by pipeline to Mombasa, processing crude from the DRC and South Sudan within four to five years. The Iran war has exposed East Africa’s acute dependence on Gulf fuel imports, with some eastern and southern African nations sourcing 75%+ of fuel from the Middle East.
Africa’s LNG Exports Climb 27% in Early 2026, Driven by Supply Shifts
ecofinagency.com · Sat 26 Apr 2026
#LNGAfrica African LNG exports rose 27% year-on-year in Q1 2026 to 11.32 million tons, accounting for ~10% of global LNG exports, with Nigeria leading at 4.99 million tons (+45%) and Mauritania surging from 42,000 to 703,000 tons. European and Asian buyers are redirecting procurement from disrupted Middle Eastern supply, positioning Africa as an increasingly significant source in the reconfigured global LNG market.
Policy & Regulation
Tackling energy security can no longer be put off
Financial Times · Mon 21 Apr 2026
#EnergySecurity Fidelity International’s chief equities investment officer argues that the Iran war will force a generational recalibration of energy policy comparable to the 1970s oil crisis. Countries with <5% fossil in their electricity mix (France, Nordics) are escaping the worst of the price spike, while those at 39–50% (Germany, Italy) face 2027 power prices roughly double those of low-carbon leaders.
https://www.ft.com/content/6b4ee95e-d181-437d-ad46-f6db6352aef9
Commission proposes actions to protect Europeans from the fossil energy crisis
European Commission · Sat 26 Apr 2026
#Electrification #AccelerateEU The European Commission launched AccelerateEU, a package of short-term relief and structural measures to reduce fossil fuel dependency, noting the EU has spent an additional €24bn on energy imports since the Middle East escalation without receiving extra supply. Key measures include a Fuel Observatory, an Electrification Action Plan by summer, a State Aid Temporary Framework, and a Clean Energy Investment Summit, with €660bn/year needed until 2030 for the energy transition.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_629
Canada greenlights Enbridge gas pipeline expansion in test of Carney approval process
Reuters · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#NewPipeline Canada approved Enbridge’s C$4bn ($2.93bn) Sunrise Expansion of the Westcoast natural gas pipeline in British Columbia, adding 300 mmcf/d of capacity, the first major pipeline approval under PM Carney. Enbridge noted faster approval timelines but said Canada must move faster to compete globally, with potential for 2–3 more large gas pipelines to the Pacific coast to support LNG exports.
War in Iran Gives New Fuel to a Tax Debate in Australia
New York Times · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#WindfallTax Australia’s gas export tax debate has intensified amid the Iran war, with the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax generating only A$1.1bn versus A$2.7bn from beer excise, while LNG producers stand to profit further from damaged Qatari infrastructure. The Albanese government has asked Treasury to model options for a windfall tax, while a proposed 25% levy on all gas exports has drawn concern from Japan, which sources 40% of its LNG from Australia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/world/asia/iran-australia-natural-gas-tax.html
Public Opinion & Reputation
Is Norway really a war profiteer?
Financial Times · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#SovereignWelathFund Norway has earned an estimated additional $8bn from the Iran conflict on top of ~$140bn in extra petroleum revenues from 2022–2023 following the Ukraine war, drawing accusations of war profiteering from EU neighbours. Finance Minister Stoltenberg counters that the sovereign wealth fund ($2.2tn) loses value when global instability hits equity markets, but the reputational pressure is intensifying as Hormuz-driven oil prices continue to fill Norwegian coffers.
https://www.ft.com/content/d4fbcdd8-3f62-4253-a9e8-dc16c6135308
Environmental Groups Sue to Block BP’s Plan to Drill in Deep Gulf Waters
New York Times · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#LitigationBP Earthjustice and five other groups sued the Trump administration to block BP’s $5bn Kaskida ultra-deepwater drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico, which would produce 80,000 bpd from ~6,000 ft depth in a field estimated to hold 10bn barrels. Opponents warn of a worst-case spill of up to 4 million barrels versus Deepwater Horizon’s 3.2 million, while BP says the first phase targets ~275 million barrels of recoverable resources starting 2029.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/climate/bp-kaskida-drilling-lawsuit.html
B.C. energy regulator finds non-compliant black smoke flaring by LNG Canada
BNN Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#Compliance British Columbia’s energy regulator issued a compliance order to LNG Canada after inspections found at least two instances of black smoke emissions, including one lasting over seven hours, violating its permit. Monthly reports show warm/wet flares exceeded permitted volumes by 45x on average between October and January, with seven unplanned flaring notices in April alone.
Countries meet in first global effort to phase out fossil fuels
BBC · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#FossilFuelPhaseOut Around 60 nations gathered in Santa Marta, Colombia, to plan a complete move away from fossil fuels outside the COP framework, frustrated by major producers’ effective veto at COP30 in November 2025. Attending countries account for roughly a fifth of global fossil fuel supply, but the US, China and India are absent, limiting the initiative’s near-term impact on global production.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2rq92yv4vo
Shell faces new court case in the Netherlands over emissions
Reuters · Mon 21 Apr 2026
#Litigation Friends of the Earth Netherlands filed a new lawsuit demanding Shell immediately halt investments in new oil and gas projects, building on a 2024 appeals court ruling that found Shell has a responsibility to reduce emissions. Shell called the case “unreasonable” while targeting 4–5% annual LNG sales growth and sustained “material” oil output beyond 2030, having scaled back renewables and weakened emissions targets since the Ukraine war windfall.
California Is Ground Zero for the Growing Battery Backlash
Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#BatteryStorage Community opposition is increasingly derailing large-scale battery storage projects across the US, with California’s utility-scale capacity at nearly 15,000 MW but facing 110,000+ MW in applications and mounting cancellations. Safety failure rates per installed GWh fell 98% between 2018 and 2024, but developers’ siting choices in fire-prone and residential areas are fuelling public hostility that threatens the 29 GW target for California by 2035.
Data Centres Energy
Amazon-backed nuclear developer X-energy surges 27% in trading debut
Financial Times · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#Nuclear X-energy, an Amazon-backed SMR developer, closed 27% above its IPO price on its Nasdaq debut, raising $1bn and achieving a fully diluted market capitalisation of just under $12bn. The listing reflects intensifying investor appetite for SMR technology as data centre power demand surges, with rivals TerraPower and Kairos Power also starting commercial construction within the past week.
https://www.ft.com/content/905d06cf-9b28-494a-be26-4a64f8269b73
Batteries and Natural Gas Become Unlikely Companions
Bloomberg · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#GasBatteries BloombergNEF tracked 4.9 GW of energy storage co-located with on-site gas generation at data centres, representing about 32% of announced global on-site data centre battery capacity. Battery cost declines of 75% between 2018 and 2025 are enabling pairing with gas turbines to provide rapid-discharge reliability for AI workloads, extending fossil fuel infrastructure life rather than displacing it.
New Gas-Powered Data Centers Could Emit More Greenhouse Gases Than Entire Nations
Wired · Tue 22 Apr 2026
#EmissionsClaims Gas projects linked to just 11 US data centre campuses (serving OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, xAI) have the potential to emit over 129 million tons of greenhouse gases per year, more than Morocco’s total 2024 emissions. The analysis underscores how AI infrastructure buildout is locking in decades of new fossil fuel demand at a scale that rivals national emissions profiles.
Renewables & CleanTech
Iran war revives European rooftop solar demand to cut energy bills
Reuters · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#Solar European rooftop solar demand has surged since the war began, with German wholesaler Solarhandel24 seeing net sales nearly triple in March to €70mn and Enpal reporting 30% YoY order growth. SMA Solar shares are up ~50% since the war began, and OVO Energy framed the spike as a “structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating.”
Global clean power growth points to permanent shift, analysts say
Financial Times · Mon 21 Apr 2026
#CleanPower Global clean power output grew faster than electricity demand in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic year, with renewables generating more electricity than coal for the first time in the modern power system. China’s exports of solar panels, batteries and EVs hit a record $21.9bn in March 2026 (+70% YoY), totalling $200bn over the past 12 months, roughly 6% of all Chinese exports.
https://www.ft.com/content/d525d8ea-9a07-4e22-8780-48bae3fdf2bb
Green fertiliser project challenges industry’s reliance on natural gas
Financial Times · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#GreenAmmonia UK-listed Atome took a final investment decision on its $665mn Villeta plant in Paraguay, the first industrial-scale green fertiliser facility using hydroelectric power to produce ~260,000 t/year of ammonia without natural gas. The project, backed by IFC, EIB and Hy24 with a 10-year Yara offtake contract, is positioned as a food security play, with Latin America importing roughly half its fertiliser from behind the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.ft.com/content/caf98175-6cf3-4d17-b604-0b8faa33e600
Five charts on how US clean electricity output keeps climbing
Reuters · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#USPowerMix US clean power sources generated more electricity than fossil fuel plants for the first time in March 2026 (record 182.6 TWh clean vs 166 TWh fossil), accounting for a record 47% of total utility generation in Q1. Nuclear output has exceeded coal for eight consecutive months, while coal-fired Q1 emissions fell to ~177 mt CO₂e versus a three-year average of 219 mt, despite the Trump administration’s anti-renewables stance.
Africa, Southeast Asia drive China solar panel exports to record in March
Reuters · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#SolarTrade China’s solar panel exports surged 42.2% to a record 1.75 mt in March (13.3% of all 2025 volumes in a single month), valued at $3.61bn, driven by Southeast Asian and African stockpiling ahead of China’s April export tax refund removal. DRC shipments soared from 1,352 tons to 21,370 tons and the Philippines nearly quadrupled imports, reflecting both energy security demand driven by the war and pre-emptive purchasing before price increases.
China, India place strategic bets on clean energy out of favour in the West
Reuters · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#GreenHydrogen China invested $3.7bn in green hydrogen production in 2025 (more than double US levels), with 2.6 mt/year projected online by 2031, while India targets 5 million tons annually by 2030 backed by ~$2.1bn in subsidies. Both countries are driven by energy security concerns following successive fossil fuel supply shocks, with India’s green hydrogen costs falling from ~$5/kg in 2023 to ~$3/kg and targeting ~$2/kg by 2032.
Global energy demand growth was met by diverse range of sources in 2025, led by solar and then gas
IEA · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#GlobalEnergyReview Solar PV was the single largest contributor to global energy supply growth in 2025 for the first time (>25% of the increase), with renewables and nuclear meeting nearly 60% of all energy demand growth. China’s emissions declined in 2025 while India’s were flat for the first time since the 1970s (excluding COVID), and cumulative clean tech deployment since 2019 now displaces fossil fuel consumption equivalent to Latin America’s entire energy demand.
Oil
Druzhba oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary after Ukraine war standoff
Reuters / Bloomberg · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#Druzhba Crude oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline resumed to Hungary and Slovakia after a nearly three-month outage, with Hungary lifting its veto on a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine in exchange for the restart. Incoming Hungarian PM Peter Magyar pledged to reorient Hungary toward Europe but set a drawn-out timeline extending into the next decade for weaning off Russian energy.
US shale bosses resist boosting oil output over Iran war ‘chaos’
Financial Times / Reuters · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#USShale A Dallas Fed survey of 100+ oil and gas executives found 43% do not expect US daily production to increase by more than 250,000 bpd in 2026, with rig counts flat despite $100+ crude as price swings “based on tweets” make capital planning impossible. Halliburton reported Q1 North America revenue of $2.1bn (−4% YoY), with smaller producers beginning to add rigs but major operators’ timing “less clear.”
https://www.ft.com/content/273c0321-0678-4ac0-9ccc-432301865b4c
Gas & LNG
Germany to begin privatisation of seized Gazprom division
Financial Times · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#EnergySecurityEU Sefe (formerly Gazprom Germania) plans to raise €1.5–2bn through its first capital increase as a step toward privatisation, with the German government required to sell at least 75% by end of 2028 per EU rules. The Iran war has added impetus by highlighting the importance of reliable European gas suppliers, while a potential merger with nationalised Uniper remains under government consideration.
https://www.ft.com/content/8e40edc2-2c58-4c71-adbd-3d638fa71fe3
Australian Gas Exporter Santos Streamlines Business to Cut Costs
Bloomberg · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#Restructuring Santos is restructuring its Australian and PNG operations into four regional business units to cut costs, shifting focus from production growth to profitability. The company faces a senate inquiry into whether gas exporters should pay more tax after the Iran war boosted international prices, with its Gladstone LNG project under scrutiny for buying domestic gas to fulfil export contracts.
China Revives Coal-to-Gas Projects as Energy Security Frays
Bloomberg · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#CoalToGas A dormant Chinese coal-to-gas project is set to launch in 2026, part of a broader wave of investments allowing Beijing to reduce dependence on imported gas amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The revival reflects China’s strategic pivot toward domestic energy self-sufficiency using abundant coal reserves, a pattern that accelerates with each successive supply disruption.
Coal, not gas: How China makes urea differently from the rest of the world
Reuters · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#Fertiliser China’s coal-based urea production (78% of output from coal rather than natural gas) has insulated it from the fertiliser price shocks caused by the Iran war, with domestic prices roughly a third of international benchmarks. China has restricted between 50% and 80% of its fertiliser exports to protect domestic supply, tightening global availability for import-dependent countries across Asia, Latin America and Africa.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/IRAN-CRISIS/CHINA-UREA/zgpolzxlqvd/
Fresh EU sanctions set to hit condensate imports from Russia’s Yamal LNG
Reuters · Fri 25 Apr 2026
#RussiaSanctions New EU sanctions will ban gas condensate imports from Yamal LNG and other Russian LNG projects from 1 January 2027, closing a loophole that had previously exempted condensate from energy sanctions. Yamal LNG exported 1.2 million tons of condensate to Rotterdam in 2025, used as feedstock for petrochemicals and motor fuel; the ban accompanies a €90bn EU loan to Ukraine.
Azerbaijan says it is ready to supply LNG to Pakistan
Reuters · Mon 21 Apr 2026
#AzerbaijanLNG SOCAR stated it is ready to supply LNG to Pakistan under a 2025 framework agreement with Pakistan LNG, pending a formal request from Islamabad. Pakistan remains acutely vulnerable to declining domestic gas production and global LNG price volatility amid the Iran-related supply disruptions, having faced near-zero LNG imports in April.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/azerbaijan-says-it-is-ready-supply-lng-pakistan-2026-04-21/
Tanker arrives at Golden Pass Texas facility for inaugural LNG export
Reuters · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#GoldenPass Golden Pass LNG’s first export cargo is being loaded at Port Arthur, Texas, aboard QatarEnergy’s Al Qaiyyah tanker, destined for Italy, after the plant produced its first LNG on 30 March. Train 1 has 6 mtpa capacity (QatarEnergy 70%, Exxon 30%), though the facility was processing only 400 mmcf/d against 800 mmcf/d capacity at the time of loading.
Singapore Is Procuring More LNG as Iran War Cuts Some Supply
Bloomberg · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#SingaporeProcurement Singapore GasCo, a state-owned entity established in 2025, is procuring additional LNG from outside the Middle East after Qatar shipments were cut off by the Hormuz blockade. Before the conflict, Qatari gas accounted for less than 10% of Singapore’s electricity needs, but the city-state relies on natural gas as its primary power generation fuel, with ~60% of imports arriving as seaborne LNG.
LNG Canada Nearing Full Capacity as Iran War Squeezes Global Supply
NGI · Mon 20 Apr 2026
#LNGCanada LNG Canada is approaching full capacity in April with approximately 15 cargoes expected, as Middle East supply disruptions drive Asian buyers toward North American LNG. The ramp-up strengthens the commercial case for a Phase 2 investment decision, which the CEO has indicated could come by late 2026 or early 2027.
LNG Canada says markets aren’t paying extra for low-carbon energy at this time
ipolitics.ca · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#CarbonPricing LNG Canada CEO Chris Cooper told a House committee that global markets are not currently paying a premium for low-carbon LNG, despite the facility operating at 60% less carbon intensity than average global competitors. The Phase 2 FID ($33bn expansion to double output) is expected by late 2026 or early 2027, with Canada’s stringent regulations seen as both a competitive differentiator and a drag on investment timelines.
Industrial
Mercuria to invest in smelters and mines as it expands metals push
Financial Times · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#Metals Mercuria is taking its first equity stake in an aluminium smelter (25% in a Tsingshan-operated facility in Indonesia) and expanding into copper mining, having distributed over $3bn in metal pre-payments since 2024. The Hormuz closure has choked off ~20% of global aluminium supply, driving LME aluminium prices up ~14% since the war began, though a prolonged conflict could dent demand.
https://www.ft.com/content/263d0241-0190-4474-b86e-4117936ef2b9
Minerals
Trump trade chief urges US allies to pay more for critical minerals
Financial Times · Wed 22 Apr 2026
#CriticalMinerals US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is pushing allies to accept “national security premium” pricing for critical minerals sourced outside China, with a proposed club of trading partners at set minimum prices backed by tariffs. Allies have privately raised concerns that price floors will increase costs for defence, automaking and clean energy sectors, and risk Chinese retaliation, amid soaring energy costs from the Iran war.
https://www.ft.com/content/7c5a8936-9726-4892-9532-d63b07831537
Macro
‘The last thing we needed’: US farmers hit by spiralling prices due to Iran war
Financial Times · Wed 23 Apr 2026
#FoodSecurity US farmers face a severe input cost squeeze as urea prices surged 47% (a record increase), nitrogen fertiliser rose 30%+ and farm diesel climbed 46%; an AFBF survey found ~70% of farmers cannot afford all the fertiliser they need. The cost surge hits during the critical spring planting season when farm incomes were already at multi-year lows, with Middle East countries affected by the Hormuz closure accounting for nearly half of global urea exports.
https://www.ft.com/content/c3b70fde-3e8a-4661-a4cb-7dc1564f43b1
US stocks race ahead of Europe as Wall Street shrugs off energy shock
Financial Times · Thu 24 Apr 2026
#Markets The Nasdaq hit a record high in April (+15% for the month), driven by AI/tech earnings and the US’s position as a net energy exporter, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained only 5%, the widest performance gap since June 2025. S&P 500 Q1 blended net profit margin of 13.4% is on track for the strongest quarter since 2009, but BofA described the recovery as “bubble-like” amid rising inflation expectations and petrol above $4/gallon.
https://www.ft.com/content/199c4082-9c97-4f59-bdb0-8b1f53abb11a
JPMorgan to invest in Europe and UK in expanded $1.5tn security initiative
Financial Times · Mon 21 Apr 2026
#InvestmentFlows JPMorgan is extending its $1.5tn “security and resilience” initiative to Europe and the UK, a 10-year plan to fund critical industries including defence, energy, infrastructure and AI, with $10bn of JPMorgan’s own capital primarily directed to the US. The expansion follows the Iran war and Ukraine conflict exposing European vulnerabilities in energy and defence self-sufficiency.
https://www.ft.com/content/dd007c3b-1d79-4835-bfae-ea568aec45b6
SOURCES
Axios, BBC, Bloomberg, BNN Bloomberg, CNN, ecofinagency.com, European Commission, Financial Times, IEA, ipolitics.ca, Natural Gas Intelligence, New York Times, Reuters, Washington Post, Wired
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